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2025 Cleveland Guardians Prospect Scouting Report: #7 LHP Joey Cantillo
Next Year in Cleveland - Guardians Farm System Coverage
To: me · Tue, Jun 17 at 2:16 PM
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2025 Cleveland Guardians Prospect Scouting Report: #7 LHP Joey Cantillo
Can Cantillo throw enough strikes to stay a starter long term?
Justin Lada
Jun 17
Age (2024 season): 25
Acquired: Trade (2020, SD)
2024 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Height: 6’5
Weight: 225
Throws: Left
2025 Scouting Grades
Fastball: 55
Slider: 45
Curveball: 55
Changeup: 60
Command: 40
Overall: 50
Risk: Moderate
ETA: 2024
First impression
Lanky, classic starting pitchers build. Transformed into a stuff over control from a control over stuff type arm. Injury concerns.
What Makes Cantillo Fun
I think I’ve mentioned before, I love lefties with dynamite changeups and Cantillo has the best in the entire organization now that Eli Morgan is gone. It’s incredibly deceptive in movement with great drop to his armside away from right handers and it has big separation from his fastball (about 15 MPH). Years ago, Cantillo had a big, loopy curveball that had the makings of an above average pitch. He’s slightly increased the velo on it enough now and helped make it tighter in shape, now it’s a strike stealer and gets whiffs. His fastball velocity can get up to 97 but he’ll typically be 90-94. That all plays up a bit because of Cantillo’s extension. He’s in the 99th percentile in baseball in extension thanks to a strong use of his lower half, getting downhill and releasing the ball out front.
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What Could Hold Cantillo Back
So far, Cantillo has had an issue staying healthy since 2021. He’s had shoulder, abdominal and hamstring issues going back to then. Control is the other issue for Cantillo. When Cleveland acquired him in 2020, he was more of a control pitcher, throwing 88-92 and relying on command. Now the stuff has taken a jump and his control has waned. He also needs his fastball velocity needs to be more consistently in the 92-95 range, rather than 90-94, even though he can scrape 96. The extension is good, but the other metrics struggle. His slider is just fringey. Control and health are the last two things that hold Cantillo back from being a rotation stalwart.
Key Metric
9.2% - That was Cantillo’s walk rate in the majors in 2024, his lowest since 2019 in Low-A, when he was a control over stuff arm. That’s an interesting thing to track, because if he can keep his walk rate in that range, then there’s less concern about his control thanks to his stuff. It will still cause him issues, but this is a more competitive range for him and gives reason to have hope on growth.
Intangibles
Cantillo has persevered through injury issues, and was a high risk, high school draft pick that has come a long way in that time. Despite his injuries, Cantillo has developed into a true potential rotation arm now.
Future
Cantillo will spend 2025 as a depth starter once again and should be the first arm recalled in wake of an injury or double-header. He could be good enough to hold a rotation spot down in 2025 or at least get a shot to prove that. He’ll serve as depth, most likely, unless Triston McKenzie doesn’t make the rotation. Then there’s a possible spot for him. He’s ready to at least try to claim one, but it’s better for the Guardians and possibly him for a little more Triple-A refinement and be that depth arm. Health is always a challenge, but he’s just some more consistent control away from a being a solid back end rotation contributor and somewhere in the mid-rotation realm.
Role/Risk
50/Moderate - Mid to back end rotation arm depending on control/health
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