AL Central prospect guide -- who to watch on Twins, Indians, White Sox, Royals and Tigers

Keith Law ESPN Senior Writer

We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today we focus on the AL Central.

As always, these rankings combine my firsthand evaluation of players, copious input from MLB scouts and executives, and the players' performance to date. Age and position also factor heavily into rankings, as players up the middle are more valuable (they're scarcer) than those on the corners, and players who succeed while young for the levels in which they play tend to become better big leaguers.

Player rankings are team-agnostic: A prospect would get the same ranking or evaluation if he played for Miami that he would get if he played for Colorado. Any numerical grades assigned to players are on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is major league average and 80 is Billy Hamilton's speed or Joey Gallo's power.

Players who have lost Rookie of the Year eligibility (more than 130 at bats, 50 innings, or 45 days on the active 25-man roster) do not count toward these rankings.

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Cleveland Indians

The Indians have a quietly strong system with a lot of position-player depth from Triple-A all the way down to rookie ball, with their Arizona League club by far the strongest complex-level team for prospect value last year, thanks to smart drafts and some big hits on the international market.

1. Triston McKenzie, RHP (ranked No. 23)
2. Nolan Jones, 3B (ranked No. 43)
3. Noah Naylor, C/3B (ranked No. 74)
4. Yu Chang, SS
5. Oscar Mercado, OF
6. Bobby Bradley, 1B
7. Brayan Rocchio, SS
8. Lenny Torres, RHP
9. Tyler Freeman, SS
10. George Valera, OF

Non-top-100 prospects

Yu Chang looks like a soft regular at shortstop right now; he can definitely play the position and may even end up a plus defender there. But he has something of a grooved path at the plate that he adopted in Double-A two seasons ago as he realized he could pull some fastballs, and that's probably not conducive to making him the hitter he needs to be. He doesn't go the other way well, so pitchers can go down and away with breaking stuff and he just pulls off. He's also blocked in Cleveland by a superstar in Francisco Lindor, and if he moves to the next most likely position, he's blocked by another superstar in Jose Ramirez, so maybe he's a trade piece.

I'm a big Oscar Mercado fan, and thought Cleveland did well to add him for two prospects (of value) in a trade last summer, as their system lacks any outfield depth near the majors. Since moving off short, he's become a plus defender in center and developed across the board as a hitter. Mercado walked more this year at the expense of some power, but the raw power and swing path for 20-plus homers are still there, and now it looks like his approach is good enough to get him there. My gut feeling is that next winter, he'll either be on the top 100 or will have played enough in the majors to make himself ineligible.

Bobby Bradley took a step back at the plate last year but has solidified himself as a regular at first base, with some scouts saying he could end up an above-average defender there because of his athleticism (which you wouldn't guess at first glance). He's a "three true outcomes" sort of guy who could get to 30 homers a year if he hits enough, but his .224/.308/.466 line between Double-A and Triple-A last year at age 22 was a surprise and a setback.

Brayan Rocchio was the best of the horde of prospects on Cleveland's Arizona League team, two of whom are already gone in trades. Rocchio is a shortstop and projects to stay there, playing the position well without flash, showing good hands and an above-average arm. He's a switch-hitter who can be a little handsy, but he has good hand-eye and is an above-average runner who is still learning how to steal bases. Opposing scouts were impressed by his instincts in the field and ability to read pitches before the hitters even had a chance to put balls in play. He'll probably play more second and third as he moves up to maintain flexibility, but in a system without Lindor, he'd be a no-doubt shortstop.

Lenny Torres was Cleveland's third pick, taken 41st overall in 2018, a smaller right-hander from upstate New York who dominated in high school with a 92-97 mph fastball, then went out over the summer and showed better control and more feel for his slider than he had in the spring. He's a bit farther away than most prep pitchers but also pitched the whole year at 17, turning 18 in mid-October.

Tyler Freeman was widely seen as a reach when Cleveland took him in the second round in 2017 (including by me), but he opened everyone's eyes in 2018 by hitting .352 to lead the NY-Penn League last summer at age 19, while also posting the lowest strikeout rate in the league at 7.3 percent. He doesn't walk and he doesn't have power, but he's improved enough that other teams are talking about him as a shortstop, and his bat-to-ball skill is at the far right end of the scale.

George Valera was Cleveland's big signing in 2017, landing a $1.3 million bonus, but broke a hamate bone and missed most of 2018 as a result, although he returned for instructs in the Dominican Republic and swung the bat well. It's still all projection, but the hope when he signed was that he would grow into an impact hitter who would hit for average and power while playing right field.

Luis Oviedo (11) is tall and still slight but has seen his fastball velocity creep up to the low to mid-90s, and he misses bats with the pitch, extending well out front and throwing a ton of strikes. He doesn't have a solid-average second pitch yet, although his slider improved last year and he has some feel for a changeup.

Chih-Wei Hu (12) has mostly worked as a starter so far, all in the Rays' system, with a five-pitch mix that features a straight change and a palmball, two pitches that serve the same purpose but look very different to hitters, along with a plus fastball and above-average slider. I'd still try to start him, but if Cleveland needs a multi-inning reliever, he's their best immediate candidate.

Ethan Hankins (13) was Cleveland's second pick, 35th overall, in last year's draft, after a spring ruined by a shoulder injury that cost him likely top-10 consideration, maybe top-five. Hankins has a tough delivery with a short stride and insufficient use of his lower half, but before the injury, he'd hit 97 regularly with a hammer curveball. After he returned, he dialed everything back, hitting 95 but sitting 90-93 and casting a few breaking balls in short starts. Cleveland shut him down for most of the summer to protect his arm, but he did throw a little at the end of the year. The hope is that he'll be ready to roll in March and will look like he did in the summer of 2017.

Zach Plesac (14) is a four-pitch starter who'll sit 92-93, touching 96, with a promising slider and good control. He signed in 2016 as a 12th-round pick, shortly after undergoing Tommy John surgery, making 2018 his first full, healthy season in three years, and in that time, he's also gained strength and looks durable enough to start. He looks like a potential fourth or fifth starter who could be more if any one of his pitches gains a half-grade. Dan is his uncle, if you were curious.

Daniel Johnson (15) came from Washington in the Yan Gomes trade, a college product whom the Nats slow-played because his skills weren't up to his tools. He was hampered by a hamate injury in 2018, and his trouble recognizing breaking balls was exposed by Double-A pitchers, which explains why he hit just .163/.250/.239 off lefties for Harrisburg. His tools are still well ahead of his production; he's a plus runner with plus raw power that doesn't quite play in games, with some feel to hit by using the whole field. His speed could make him a plus defender in a corner outfield spot given time and reps.

Ernie Clement (16) is your prototypical scrappy middle infielder, undersized, putting the ball in play a ton -- 35 strikeouts in 471 PA last year, with 41 walks -- without power. Scouts love how he plays, even though his tools are light, and though he played short exclusively in 2018, he can play second and is most likely to end up a utility infielder who can bounce between short, second and third.

Eighteen-year-old Carlos Vargas (17) also was on that loaded AZL squad, signing two years ago for $275,000, and already has above-average velocity even with projection remaining on his lanky frame. His slider is still behind and his fastball doesn't have great life, but he may start throwing in the upper 90s as he fills out. He did walk 24 in 34 innings last summer, and I heard it looked worse than the stat line would imply.

Eli Morgan (18) doesn't throw hard, topping out around 90, but his changeup is easily a plus pitch; he pronates it hard, like a screwball, and sells it well out of his hand, striking out more than a batter an inning in low-A and high-A last year, his first full year in pro ball. He's a strike-thrower with very good command for his age, working to the corners of the zone, and that changeup might just carry him to the majors as a fifth starter.

Sam Hentges (19) is a big lefty who returned last year from Tommy John surgery, gets up to 94 with good carry, and can show two breaking balls, a curve and a slider-cutter that could get to average. His changeup is behind and he's still recovering his command from before the surgery. He could be a back-end starter. Nick Sandlin (20), the Indians' second-round pick in 2018, varies his arm slot but throws a lot from sidearm or below, and Cleveland pushed him in his first summer, putting him right in the bullpen (where he belongs) and sending him through four levels, where he walked just three batters in 25 innings with 36 strikeouts.

Others of note:

Raynel Delgado slipped to the sixth round last year, but the prep shortstop, destined for second base in pro ball, has legit power, especially when he hits left-handed. He had a very solid debut in the AZL, where he showed some patience and hit well from both sides of the plate.

Eric Haase is a strong-armed catcher with 60-65 power who struggled badly with contact in Triple-A last year, ending up with a .288 OBP, but could get a lot of playing time in Cleveland this year, especially if he shows a little more ability to put the ball in play.

Aaron Civale looked like a potential fourth or fifth starter after 2017 but struggled with injuries last year and saw his stuff back up.

2019 impact: Haase could end up catching quite a bit for the big club this year. The Indians don't really have established outfielders right now, so there could be a chance for Mercado to play his way into a regular job -- and he might be their best option, if not now, maybe by June. They have starter depth but Hu is likely to be the first one recalled if they need an arm for more than a short relief role.

Sleeper: Rocchio's ranking here kind of establishes him as the player I think is most likely to leap into the top 100 in a year. Oviedo is the name on a lot of other teams' lips as someone they'd like to grab in a trade, although Cleveland knows what it has.

The fallen: Will Benson has been a fiasco in pro ball, as the former first-rounder still doesn't have a functional swing and shows poor instincts on defense. He can run and his body is all you could ask for, but his pitch recognition isn't there and he mistimes constantly on balls, to the point that you'll regularly see him foul pitches into the dugout behind him.

I'm glad to see nice words about Hu [since we don't need starters but do need relievers I'm assuming he can use his quality pitches from the bullpen; gives me one more reason to hope Otero is superseded]; doesn't make the BA Top 30 nor do Morgan or Plesac. I forgot about Plesac, I had liked him before. BA preferred lefty Kirk McCarty to all three of them, just squeezing onto to their list at No. 30. I liked the way he improved dramatically over the course of 2018.
I guess I'm wrong about James Karinchak since he's not on either list; he registers a ton of strikeouts but a similar ton of walks. MLB.com has him on their list at No. 28. some folks here would be happy to know that Longo is on their's too, at 26. They have Hu 17 and Morgan 18

Mercado report is promising, too. There are no sure things for the Indians outfield and he could win the job in left center or right.

BA early report on the 2019 July International Signing race, none of the top players listed is committed to the Indians, but it's early and we've had a great recent track record.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... dium=email

https://twitter.com/i/status/1091467083651657728

Video from the other day of our young mister George Valera. Shows bunt, then pulls bat bat and promptly smacks a homer to RF.

Another sites ranking of our prospects.

http://www.prospects1500.com/general/cl ... prospects/

Damn, for some reason I could not get this image to post. But if you click on the link below it will take you to Indians Prospective twitter feed. And at the very top in a pinned tweet is a list of 13 players the Indians are expected to sign in July during International signing period. (You do not need to have a twitter account to see his feed. As always, I highly recommend keeping an eye on his account)

https://twitter.com/@IndiansPro

Here is a high opinion of Nolan Jones.

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https://prospects365.com/2019/02/04/app ... lan-jones/

That's the first list that didn't put McKenzie on top. There is a lot of reason to feel very optimistic about Nolan Jones, and since we don't need Mc as much as we need another very good bat I'll be happy if Jones winds up the best big leaguer of the group.

A few other notable distinctions on that list: he's the most optimistic on Will Benson, at No. 14. The least so Sam Hentges at No 23 although he still calls him a likely 3rd or 4th major league starter. Very much down on Civale, rating him No. 31.

My favorite Mr. Karinchak gets little love at No. 42 but then he adds in that he's a "very underrated" prospect; is he contradicting his own rating?

He dumps Jordan Luplow around No. 27 although he isn't really a rookie any more that does show what he thinks of our "projected opening day LF". On the other hand Oscar Mercado at No. 10 seems poised to take that role for himself.

He's the first reviewer to include Connor Marabell granted he's barely there at No. 29.

He concludes with a couple great names: the well-known Aruban Sicnarf Loopstok followed by the newcomer: Alexfri Planez, who is apparently an interstellar signee from Neptune.

I had noted BA's ranking of the Indians farm system before. now it's on line


16 Cleveland Indians

Notes:
2018: 21 | 2017: 18 | 2016: 17 | 2015: 23 | 2014: 17

2 Top 100 prospects: RHP Triston McKenzie (44), 3B Nolan Jones (96)

Notes: Beyond Triston McKenzie, the Indians are light at the upper levels following trades and graduations. The lower levels are full of arrow-up players though, and scouts have taken notice of the team's collection of young Latin American prospects—a sign of the organization's recently revamped international program.

Last year Tito was excited because Bobby Bradley looked slim but he didn't have a good season in Akron. So know he's bulking up. Try anything.

https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2019/02 ... eport.html

MLB.com finally published their updated Top 30 prospects list with contents for each player that include 2018 performances.
Our list is super heavy on SS, who can always switch to an easier defensive spot and can be valuable trade commodities
Only 5 outfielders, only one of whom is among the top 18, but Jones is reasonably likely to move to the outfield
Pitching retains its right handed dominance, with Hentges the only lefty in the batch vs 9 righities
Which basically means the minor league strengths are the same as the major league strengths.

1-10:
McKenzie
Jones
Freeman ss
Naylor
Valera
Bradley
Rocchio ss
Oviedo
Hankins
Hentges

11-20:
Chang ss
Torres
G.Rodriguez ss
Bracho ss
Clement ss
C. Mejia
Sandlin
Mercado
Vargas

21-30:
Palacio 2b
D.Johnson
Fermin 2b/ss
Civale
Benson
J.Sanquintin ss
Holmes
M.Gonzalez ss
Haase
Karinchak





here's the link:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=cle

BA begins daily prospect reports;

CLE MAJ Chang, Yu SS 1 0 0 0 .200
CLE MAJ Clement, Ernie 2B 2 1 1 2 .400 HR (1)
CLE MAJ Haase, Eric C 2 0 1 1 .667 2B (1)
CLE MAJ Johnson, Daniel RF 1 0 0 0 .250
CLE MAJ Mercado, Oscar CF 1 0 0 0 .400
None of our prospect pitchers worked yesterday. Actually there are only a handful of our Top 30 prospects who are upper level pitchers.

Prospects in action yesterday:

CLE MAJ Chang, Yu 3B 2 0 0 0 .143
CLE MAJ Clement, Ernie 2B 3 0 0 0 .250
CLE MAJ Freeman, Tyler PR-SS 1 1 0 0 .000 [hasn't yet played in a full season game, but he's our No. 3 prospect on some lists]
CLE MAJ Johnson, Daniel RF 3 1 2 2 .429 3B (1), HR (1)
CLE MAJ Mercado, Oscar PR-CF 1 0 0 0 .333 CS (1)
CLE MAJ Hentges, Sam 1.0 0 0 0 0 0

Dramatic performances by our minor leaguers in big league spring training action on Monday:

CLE MAJ Bradley, Bobby 1B 1 0 0 0 .000
CLE MAJ Chang, Yu PR-3B 1 0 0 0 .308
CLE MAJ Clement, Ernie SS 1 0 1 0 .429
CLE MAJ Johnson, Daniel RF 1 0 1 0 .154
CLE MAJ Mercado, Oscar PR-CF 1 0 0 0 .333